Oil is the lifeblood of industrial economies and modern agriculture throughout the world. But oil is also a finite, nonrenewable resource that is being rapidly depleted by Western societies and less developed countries that aspire for higher consumption levels. The United States alone uses approximately 20 million barrels per day – about one-fourth of global consumption. Oil production will peak at some point and then decline, leading to sharp price increases and painful adjustment costs, particularly for those who are strongly attached to the amenities provided by petroleum-based production and transport systems. One bright spot is that these difficulties may encourage an increasing number of people to question the values and assumptions upon which society attempts to sustain opulence and prosperity through dependence on finite resources.
Rising energy prices will impose economic hardships well before the earth runs out of economically accessible supplies of oil, and perhaps even before oil production attains its maximum daily (peak) amount, after which it then declines. The International Energy Agency (1998) estimated that conventional oil production could peak between years 2010 and 2020, while Campbell & Laherrere (1998) put the year before 2010. It is important to note that even before we reach this maximum, the costs of extracting petroleum could rise sharply, as oil companies are compelled to tap into oil deposits that are less accessible. The result is higher energy prices charged to consumers and businesses, which is equivalent to a massive tax that drastically reduces economic growth, particularly in countries that depend heavily on imported energy. Moreover, it takes a certain amount of energy to produce oil. Higher energy costs will therefore increase the costs of extracting oil and natural gas, implying a self-reinforcing, albeit decaying, feedback effect in which rising petroleum costs calls forth still higher energy prices. Finally, the costs of extracting oil will exceed the benefits, implying that further production is not economical.
Although technological optimists maintain that we are unlikely to experience a global catastrophe precipitated by growing energy constraints, faith in technological solutions may not be realistic in the face of shortages of essential natural resources, and may even be counterproductive if such faith leads to complacency about the future. The current climate of apathy, combined with growing adoption of industrialized livestock production, tends to enhance the probability of rapid oil depletion. We can safely say that oil and natural gas production will peak sooner or later, and if it turns out to be later when the world population is substantially larger, the crisis and adjustment costs will also be substantially larger.
The real population problem is not the growing quantity of individuals, but rather the degraded quality of the human race. Specifically, the more important factor is the rapidly deteriorating spiritual consciousness (and physical health) of the population, due to the growing prevalence of cruel, meat-centered diets in vast, heavily populated parts of the world such as South and Southeast Asia. Intensive animal agriculture, a production model that is being steadily adopted throughout the world, is a vast user of fossil fuel, mainly for the production of feed. In the U.S., one ton of oil (2000 pounds or 6.75 barrels) is required to produce one steer weighing 1250 pounds (Pollan, 2002). One acre of corn production in the U.S. requires approximately 140 gallons of oil (Pimentel, 2001), and if the corn goes to livestock, only about one-fifth of the protein is returned as food, and four-fifths of it is lost (McLaren et al, 1998).
Agriculture is particularly vulnerable to rising costs of petroleum, including natural gas, which will be depleted at approximately the same time as oil. Agricultural productivity rose sharply in the 20th century with the advent of the green revolution, which draws heavily on mechanization, petrochemicals, and biotechnology. Vast amounts of land are plowed, planted, and harvested using diesel or gasoline powered farm machinery in place of human and animal labor. One hundred years ago, roughly half of the U.S. population was engaged in agriculture, while now that figure is less than 2 percent. Agricultural production and processing has become specialized, geographically concentrated, and centralized. Transportation and delivery systems that connect farming regions to cities rely critically on oil driven vehicles.
The adoption of new seed varieties has intensified our dependence on petroleum-based chemical inputs. Natural gas is an ingredient for manufacturing the chemical fertilizers that support high crop yields in modern agriculture, while oil is a raw material for producing pesticides. The high yielding seed varieties (products of biotechnology) are more productive because they respond strongly to petroleum-based chemical fertilizer. For example, corn yields would fall dramatically from 130 bushels per acre to approximately 30 bushels, in the absence of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and petroleum powered irrigation (Youngquist, 1999). Although technological optimists maintain that a global catastrophe is unlikely, it is important to consider that one of the most powerful principles of risk management is that it is irrational to ignore low probability events if they are extremely costly.
The size and severity of the energy challenge is growing ever more daunting due to the spread of modern agricultural practices that use land to convert petroleum into food. However, we do not appear to be moving quickly towards a technological solution to the growing energy constraints. By now it should be clear that alternative energy sources are no substitute for petroleum in the production of fertilizers and pesticides. For example, natural gas is chemically converted into ammonia based fertilizers. Petroleum products are actual ingredients in manufacturing fertilizers and pesticides, while alternative energy sources (nuclear, hydroelectric power, solar, geothermal, and tides) produce electricity. It may come as a surprise to many that alternative energy sources, particularly those that produce electricity, cannot easily substitute for petroleum products even in the operation of farm machinery and transport equipment. One gallon of gasoline, which has the same energy content as one ton of conventional electric batteries (Youngquist, 1999), can be transported at a much lower cost to distant locations to power the huge machines used in large scale farming. Ethanol is a subsidy supported energy negative that requires about 71% more energy to produce than is obtained, while at the same time using nonrenewable fossil energy (Pimentel, 1998).
The human race gambled by building economic and social systems that depend critically on nonrenewable energy. Time is rapidly running out and yet there is no comprehensive substitute for oil. Consequently, virtually all of our eggs remain in the petroleum basket, for the time being anyway. Individuals will always have the choice to keep gambling until everything is lost. But rather than defining human progress in terms of technological advances, it is far more practical to recognize that true progress means improving the quality of desires. It is precisely the desire for unnecessarily high consumption levels that will continue to put us into awkward positions. The quality of desires can only be refined and improved through a more spiritually oriented society, and that is the real solution. If there are to be any winners, they are likely to be self-sufficient farmers that use their own labor, draft animals, and robust time-tested Creole seeds that can be replanted year after year. The International Society for Cow Protection (ISCOWP) is maintaining the necessary knowledge base for working with draft animals, thereby demonstrating a sustainable alternative to industrial agriculture. This knowledge base originates from India of Vedic times, and was imparted to ISCOWP through A.C. Bhaktivedanta Swami Prabhupada.
References
International Energy Agency. (1998). World energy prospects to 2020. Paper prepared for the G8 energy ministers' meeting Moscow, 31 March-April 1.
Campbell, Colin J. & Jean H. Laherrere, "The End of Cheap Oil", Scientific American, March 1998, pp. 78-83.
Youngquist, Walter, “The Post-Petroleum Paradigm -- and Population”, Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies Volume 20, Number 4, March 1999
Pimentel, David, Encyclopedia of Physical Sciences and Technology, September 2001.
Pimentel, D. (1998). Energy and dollar costs of ethanol production with corn. Hubbert Center Newsletter, 98/2 M, King Hubbert Center for Petroleum Supply Studies.
McLaren D., Bullock S. and Yousuf N., Tomorrow's World, A report from Friends of the Earth. London, Earthscan Publications Ltd, chapter 6, 1998
Pollan, Michael, “Power Steer”, New York Times Magazine, March 31, 2002, issue.